SHARPE
SharpeIQ Research Desk · IPO Watch · Published 28 Oct 2026 · Updated 28 Oct 2026
Abstract
The Anthropic IPO is now on file: Anthropic, PBC filed a public Form S-1 on 26 October 2026 to list Anthropic stock (Class A common stock) on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT (S-1, Anthropic). The share count, price range and raise size are blank in the filing. The S-1 reports H1 2026 revenue of $16.3bn (H1 2025: $1.16bn), an operating loss of $693m, and a net loss of $80.7bn, which was driven by a $72.4bn non-cash fair-value charge on convertible notes, derivatives and SAFEs (S-1). Cash and equivalents stood at $112.4bn at 30 June 2026 (S-1). Press reports point to a raise of about $100bn at $1.5–2tn, with a debut in the week of 16 November (WSJ via Yahoo Finance, IFR). Those figures are reported, not filed. If the IFR-reported Q3 revenue of $16.8bn (IFR) is annualised, that range equals 22–30x run-rate revenue. Our comparable for options is SPCX, whose ATM IV fell from 132% to 61.5% within 11 sessions and then rose back above 110% (SharpeIQ data). Not investment advice.
Key Takeaways · 15-second read
- S-1 is public; the price is not. The ticker is ANT on Nasdaq, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading and the price range blank (S-1, Anthropic).
- Revenue is up 14x y/y and the operating loss is narrowing. H1 operating loss was −$693m against −$2.1bn a year earlier. The $80.7bn net loss comes mostly from accounting marks (S-1).
- Governance is novel. It is a PBC. A Long-Term Benefit Trust elects a board majority through Class T stock, and a founders’ LLC holds 50.1% of votes through Class F (S-1).
- Strategic-investor caps. Note conversions are capped so that Google holds no more than 14.99% of capitalisation (S-1).
- Vol playbook. Launch IV is likely to be very high. SPCX shows that the early collapse in IV can reverse. GOOGL IV already sits in the 84th 1y percentile (SharpeIQ data).
Anthropic IPO date and timeline: when ANT could start trading
Anthropic has not filed or announced an IPO date; the S-1 leaves the share count and price range blank (Anthropic). The public S-1 was filed on 26 October 2026 (S-1). Press reports say the company is targeting a debut in mid-November: the Wall Street Journal reported a target as soon as the week before Thanksgiving (WSJ), Yahoo Finance, citing WSJ and Reuters reports, said the aim is the week of 16 November (Yahoo Finance), and IFR reported 20 November as the planned Nasdaq debut (IFR). These dates are reported, not filed. Before trading can begin, an amended S-1 with a price range, a roadshow, pricing and SEC effectiveness are still required.
1. Anthropic IPO deal terms: what the S-1 files and what it leaves blank
The registration statement (File No. 333-299633, CIK 2130357) went public on 26 October, after a confidential submission in June (S-1). Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are listed as lead bookrunners in a syndicate that also includes J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Barclays, Wells Fargo, BofA and others (S-1). Both the company and selling stockholders will sell Class A shares (S-1).
Not yet public: the share count, price range, primary/secondary split, gross proceeds and float. IFR reports that the roadshow starts on 9 November, with a target of “up to $100bn at a $2tn valuation” (IFR). The WSJ (via Yahoo Finance) reports a debut in the week of 16 November at $1.5–2tn (WSJ via Yahoo Finance). We treat all of these as indications rather than terms.
Lock-up. The main lock-up runs 180 days, and some holders of more than 0.5% are locked up for as long as 365 days. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have early-release discretion. The filing also sets a staggered early-release schedule that starts on the 27th day after the prospectus date, but the share amounts are left blank (S-1). We could not confirm any later tranche dates from the filing text.
2. Anthropic revenue and business model
| Line | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | H1 2025 | H1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 41 | 386 | 4,585 | 1,163 | 16,286 |
| Compute & infrastructure | 433 | 2,522 | 7,326 | 2,334 | 8,945 |
| Personnel | 95 | 454 | 1,839 | 538 | 3,152 |
| Sales, marketing & partnerships | 2 | 43 | 568 | 120 | 3,168 |
| Total operating expenses | 592 | 3,366 | 12,645 | 3,298 | 16,979 |
| Operating loss | (551) | (2,980) | (8,060) | (2,135) | (693) |
| FV change: notes, derivatives, SAFEs | (1,045) | (5,434) | (34,308) | (10,942) | (72,388) |
| Net loss | (1,531) | (8,309) | (41,965) | (12,969) | (80,748) |
Customers paying more than $100k on a TTM basis grew from more than 950 to more than 11,900 by 30 September 2026. Customers above $100k produced 74% of H1 2026 revenue (S-1). The S-1 states Net Revenue Retention of about 900% (S-1). The company defines run-rate revenue (trailing 28-day consumption × 13 plus subscriptions), but the 31 October figure is blank (S-1). Q3 2026 revenue of $16.8bn (+45% q/q from $11.6bn) comes from IFR (IFR), not from the filing.
3. Cost of compute and capex
H1 2026 is the first period in which revenue exceeded compute and infrastructure expense, at $16.3bn against $8.9bn (S-1). Anthropic trains and serves models on four chip families: AWS Trainium, Google TPUs, NVIDIA GPUs and AMD GPUs, including MI450 (S-1). It has also signed a non-cancelable 2026 Broadcom equipment-lease arrangement that is financed through a note purchase agreement (S-1). The S-1 refers to aggregate committed compute spend running to 2045, but the dollar amount is blank (S-1). The risk factors flag “significant indebtedness” taken on to fund compute (S-1). Capital raised to 30 June totals $141.1bn (S-1). For context on how a capex-heavy mega-cap reported in its first public quarters, see our SpaceX Q2 2026 analysis; for how a listed hyperscaler supplier is handling AI compute demand, see our Oracle Q1 FY2027 earnings note.
4. How to value ANT stock against listed AI comparables
Private marks: Series F-1 was priced at $140.97 per share (c. $13.0bn, Aug–Sep 2025). Series G-1 was priced at $259.14 per share (c. $23.5bn, Jan–Feb 2026) (S-1). The latter was announced as a $30bn round at a $380bn post-money valuation, led by GIC and Coatue (Anthropic Series G). Yahoo/WSJ also refers to a $65bn Series H at $965bn in May (WSJ via Yahoo Finance). We have not found that round in the S-1 text and treat it as reported. At the reported $1.5–2tn, ANT would trade at 22–30x annualised Q3 revenue (Q3 × 4 = $67.2bn) before netting $131.7bn of cash and short-term investments. SPCX, the closest recent mega-cap listing, is covered in our SpaceX Q2 2026 note.
| Ticker | Close | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % | ATM IV | IV pctl 1y | 1y IV range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX | 146.90 | −0.72 | −1.20 | −8.73 (since IPO) | 50.3 | n/a (<1y history) | 35.6–132.3 (since listing) |
| GOOGL | 316.80 | −7.96 | −7.89 | +1.41 | 37.0 | 83.6 | 24.3–42.3 |
| MSFT | 532.60 | −0.17 | +3.18 | +10.83 | 33.0 | 79.1 | 18.1–46.3 |
| NVDA | 216.00 | −0.50 | −4.03 | +15.96 | 41.0 | 64.7 | 28.1–54.2 |
| META | 630.56 | −10.61 | −16.11 | −4.30 | 37.6 | 61.0 | 23.2–56.4 |
| ORCL | 126.06 | −2.72 | −8.05 | −34.70 | 57.0 | 49.0 | 40.3–85.5 |
SPCX is the closest mega-cap IPO comparable for ANT: it priced at $135 on 11 June 2026 at a reported $1.77tn valuation (Reuters). On 26 October it closed at $146.90, 8.7% below its first-day close of $160.95 but still 8.8% above the offer price (SharpeIQ data).
Dispersion is wide: day-90 returns run from -67.4% (FIG) to +202.7% (CRWV). SPCX sits at -8.2%, in the lower half, and most of these names listed at a fraction of ANT’s likely size.
| Ticker | IPO date | Offer | Mkt cap at offer | Day 20 | Day 60 | Day 90 | D90 vs offer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWV | 28 Mar 2025 | $40 | $23bn FD | +5.1% | +298.8% | +202.7% | +202.7% |
| CRCL | 5 Jun 2025 | $31 | $8.0bn FD | +149.3% | +44.4% | +61.6% | +333.9% |
| BIRK | 11 Oct 2023 | $46 | $9.3bn FD | +5.0% | +18.0% | +29.3% | +13.0% |
| RDDT | 21 Mar 2024 | $34 | $6.4bn FD | -18.9% | +19.7% | +20.6% | +78.9% |
| ARM | 14 Sep 2023 | $51 | $54.5bn FD | -18.5% | +5.7% | +19.1% | +48.5% |
| ABNB | 10 Dec 2020 | $68 | $47.3bn FD | +2.4% | +27.0% | +18.0% | +151.1% |
| SNOW | 16 Sep 2020 | $120 | $33.3bn FD | -4.2% | +47.0% | +10.7% | +134.3% |
| SPCX | 12 Jun 2026 | $135 | $1.77tn R | -13.6% | -4.6% | -8.2% | +9.4% |
| UBER | 10 May 2019 | $45 | $82.4bn FD | +2.5% | -5.8% | -17.6% | -23.9% |
| KVUE | 4 May 2023 | $22 | $41bn R | -5.0% | -12.1% | -19.0% | -1.0% |
| CART | 19 Sep 2023 | $30 | $9.9bn FD | -27.2% | -26.2% | -23.2% | -13.7% |
| META | 18 May 2012 | $38 | $104bn R | -17.8% | -46.7% | -46.1% | -45.8% |
| RIVN | 10 Nov 2021 | $78 | $66.5bn R | +14.6% | -42.1% | -53.4% | -39.8% |
| FIG | 31 Jul 2025 | $33 | $19.3bn FD | -38.3% | -53.8% | -67.4% | +14.1% |
| ANT | TBD | TBD | reported $1.5–2tn, price TBD | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Event | Approx. date | Size | Price / valuation | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Series F-1 | Aug–Sep 2025 | c. $13.0bn | $140.97/share | Filed (S-1) |
| Series G-1 | Jan–Feb 2026 | c. $23.5bn filed; $30bn announced | $259.14/share; $380bn post-money | Filed + announced |
| Series H | May 2026 | $65bn | $965bn | Reported; not in S-1 |
| Confidential S-1 | June 2026 | – | – | Filed |
| Public S-1 | 26 Oct 2026 | Blank | Price range blank | Filed |
| Roadshow start | 9 Nov 2026 | Up to $100bn | $2tn | Reported (IFR) |
| Nasdaq debut (ANT) | Week of 16 Nov 2026 | – | $1.5–2tn | Reported (WSJ) |
5. Anthropic governance: LTBT, Class T and Class F shares
Anthropic is a Delaware public benefit corporation, so it must balance shareholder returns against its stated purpose of “the responsible development and maintenance of advanced AI for the long-term benefit of humanity” (S-1). The Long-Term Benefit Trust holds Class T stock, which carries no economic rights and elects directors who form a board majority (S-1). A single Class F share held by a Founder LLC (Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei and five co-founders) will carry 50.1% of total voting power (S-1). Employees receive Class E stock with limited voting rights and no economics. Strategic partners hold Class N stock, which has no vote and converts to Class A on transfer to an unaffiliated party (S-1). Ahead of the IPO, Anthropic contributed 846.8m Class N shares (5% of fully diluted shares) to the Anthropic Public Benefit Fund (S-1).
| Class | Holder | Votes | Economics | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Public (IPO) and investors | Voting; share of total not stated | Yes | Offered in the IPO; Nasdaq: ANT |
| F | Founder LLC (D. and D. Amodei + 5 co-founders) | 50.1% of total votes | Single share | Founders hold voting control |
| T | Long-Term Benefit Trust | Elects a board majority | None | No economic rights |
| E | Employees | Limited vote | None | – |
| N | Strategic partners; Public Benefit Fund | None | Yes | Converts to A on transfer to an unaffiliated party; 846.8m Class N (5% FD) to Public Benefit Fund |
6. ANT stock options and vol playbook: the SPCX precedent
SPCX first traded on 12 June 2026; its first ATM IV print was 132.3% on 15 June. IV was 61.5% by 29 June, the 11th session. It then rose back above 110% in late July as the stock fell about 30% from its post-IPO high (SharpeIQ SPCX note). On 26 October SPCX ATM IV was 50.3%, with the stock at $146.90 (SharpeIQ data). SPCX has only about 4.5 months of IV history, so no 1-year percentile is available.
For background on reading the vol numbers here, see our guide to reading implied volatility and Crush Without the Move; live single-name moves are tracked on Options Movers.
The ANT options listing date is not yet known. Because the S-1 leaves the float blank, any estimate of a “small float” is not verifiable yet.
Desk view
View of the SharpeIQ quant desk. This is analytical framing, not a trade recommendation.
Premium argument. The strongest fundamental case for a premium multiple is Net Revenue Retention of about 900% at 30 September 2026 (S-1). Existing customers are expanding spend far faster than new logos are being added. If that rate holds, it can support an ANT valuation well above listed software peers. If it fades, the multiple has little support beneath it.
SPCX template. SPCX faded after its opening squeeze. Its ATM IV fell from 132% to 61.5% (29 June) within two weeks, and then rose back above 110% in late July as the stock fell (SharpeIQ data). The desk reads compression as conditional: it lasts only while price discovery stays orderly.
ANT launch regime. We expect ANT to start in a launch-vol regime above 100%. Listed options should follow the IPO, but the listing date and the float are not yet known. Until both are confirmed, any estimate of early vol supply is provisional.
Lock-up as catalyst. The staggered early-release schedule begins on the 27th day after the prospectus date (S-1). The tranche sizes have not yet been filed. Each release adds supply and can lift implied vol around its date. As a result, the curve may not finish compressing before the first unlock.
Megacap read-across. GOOGL ATM IV sits at the 84th 1y percentile (SharpeIQ data), so a clean pricing could take event premium out of it. Its exposure is set by a conversion cap of 14.99% (S-1). This is a limit on ownership, not a disclosed stake.
Infrastructure. The infrastructure read-across runs through compute commitments: the multi-chip footprint, the Broadcom lease and debt-funded capacity (S-1). The aggregate figure is still blank, so this is a channel to monitor rather than a number to model.
7. What would change the view
- Terms: a price range implying well below $1.5tn, or a raise much smaller than $100bn, would reset the comparables table.
- Growth: Q3 revenue growth has slowed to +45% q/q from more than 140% (IFR). Further slowing, or NRR falling from c. 900%, would challenge a 20x+ multiple.
- Compute bill: once the blank commitment figure is filled in, its size relative to revenue will be the key solvency test.
- Tape: ANT trading below the offer price before the first early release, or ANT IV still above 90% two weeks after listing, would argue against the SPCX compression template.
Anthropic IPO FAQ
When is the Anthropic IPO date?
No date has been filed. Press reports (WSJ, Reuters via Yahoo Finance, IFR) point to a Nasdaq debut in mid-November 2026, with the week of 16 November and 20 November both reported. These are reported, not filed, dates.
What is the Anthropic stock ticker?
Anthropic has applied to list its Class A common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT.
Can you buy Anthropic stock before the IPO?
Not on a public exchange. ANT shares cannot be bought on Nasdaq until the registration statement is effective and the offering prices; until then, access is limited to private and IPO allocation channels.
What did the Anthropic S-1 reveal about revenue?
The S-1 reports H1 2026 revenue of $16.3bn, against $1.16bn in H1 2025, an operating loss of $693m, and $131.7bn of cash and short-term investments.
What valuation is expected for the Anthropic IPO?
The S-1 does not state a price range. Press reports put the target valuation at c. $1.5–2tn; for comparison, SPCX priced at $135 at a reported $1.77tn.
Methodology
ATM IV and closes are SharpeIQ settled closes as of 26 Oct 2026. ATM IV has no stored tenor and is shown as “ATM IV”. The run-rate multiple is the reported valuation range divided by 4 × the IFR-reported Q3 revenue, and it ignores net cash.